Wilma expected to become an 'intense' hurricane, threatens SW Florida
Careerbuilder
By Ken Kaye
Staff Writer and the Associated Press
October 18, 2005, 7:58 AM EDT
No need to hit the panic button just yet.
But Florida residents should keep a close watch on Tropical Storm Wilma,
which emerged in the northwest Caribbean on Monday and could cross South
Florida from west to east as a major hurricane by the weekend.
The 8 a.m. Tuesday track issued by the National Hurricane Center has
Wilma making landfall on the southwest coast of Florida and moving
across the state toward the southeast coast as it weakens over land.
This places all of South Florida in the "cone of concern," with the
center of the storm predicted ot pass over on Sunday.
"There is a large variability and large errors associated with the four-
and five-day forecasts. So at this time stay tuned and monitor closely
the progress of this hurricane," the hurricane center said in a statement.
Wilma became the 21st named storm of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season,
tying it with 1933 as the busiest hurricane season on record.
Wilma was starting to drift to the northwest Tuesday morning over the
warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean, where forecasters said it
would strengthen into an intense hurricane before potentially menacing
the U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.
"Wilma is expected to become an intense hurricane in the northwestern
Caribbean Sea ... typical of those hurricanes which commonly occurred in
October during the '30s, '40s and '50s," the hurricane center said.
Forecasters said it could strengthen into the year's 12th hurricane by
Tuesday. That many hurricanes formed in 1969, the most since record
keeping began in 1851.
At 8 a.m., Wilma's top sustained winds increased to about 70 mph. If its
sustained winds reach 74 mph, Wilma will be upgraded to a Category 1
hurricane. Forecasters said Wilma was about 245 miles south-southeast of
Grand Cayman.
New forecast models placed the storm closer to western Cuba than
Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday. The storm was forecast to then
turn sharply in the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida over the weekend.
``There's no scenario now that takes it toward Louisiana or Mississippi,
but that could change,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the National
Hurricane Center in Miami.
The Cayman Islands were under a hurricane watch, meaning those
conditions could be felt within 36 hours. A tropical storm warning was
posted there and for the Honduran coast, meaning those conditions were
expected within 24 hours.
The storm is expected to bring 2 to 6 inches of rain in the Caymans,
southeastern Cuba, Haiti, Honduras and Jamaica, with as much as 12
inches possible in some areas, forecasters said.
It is unknown how a cold front, descending across the nation's
midsection, will influence the system. If the front isn't as strong or
fast-moving as expected, Wilma might not turn toward Florida, said
meteorologist Bob Pifer, of the National Weather Service in Miami.
"The answer everyone wants is still blowing in the wind," he said. "Too
many things can happen in the next four or five days."
Still, several computer-forecast models paint a target on Florida. For
that reason, the southern third of the state was in the five-day cone of
uncertainty.
"It could go anywhere in that cone of uncertainty," said Dave Roberts, a
Navy meteorologist assigned to the National Hurricane Center in
Miami-Dade County. "Interests in Florida obviously need to monitor this
system."
Wilma was forecast to strengthen into a minimal hurricane today and,
within the next two days, intensify to 115 mph or greater, which would
make it a major hurricane.
It could produce heavy rains over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
southeastern Cuba and Haiti, the hurricane center said.
Ken Kaye can be reached at kkaye@sun-sentinel.com or 954-385-7911.
Copyright © 2005, South Florida Sun-Sentinel
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-wilma,0,1180061.story
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